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SCC Preview: Stewart will be studly at Loudon

By: Mark Garrow  (archive)
Jayski.com

Mark Garrow previews the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 for Stock Car Challenge and likes Tony Stewart's upside.

Two of Sprint Cup's hottest drivers, a pair of brothers and the series defending champion all should be brimming with confidence entering this weekend's Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. One might also look at the 1-mile Phoenix track and the three-quarter-mile Richmond speedway when attempting to gain insight into a driver's performance this weekend.

Point leader Tony Stewart has always performed well on the relatively flat, 1-mile track and nothing should change for the Indiana native this year. A two-time New Hampshire winner, Stewart has finished outside the top 10 only four times this year and has eight top-5s in the past 11 races. In the past four races, he's recorded a victory, two seconds and a seventh. He was a runner-up last weekend, just as he was at Phoenix and Richmond.

At New Hampshire, Stewart is second on the track's all-time lap leader list with 936. His best finish in the past four New Hampshire races was third in the fall of 2007, but he hasn't placed outside the top 15 in any of those events. He came home eighth last fall, 13th in this race a year ago and 12th in the summer of 2007.

Just as Stewart has surprised everyone with his performance in his inaugural year as an owner/driver, the 50-year-old Mark Martin has done the same in his first full season since 2006. Currently, Martin is tied with Kyle Busch for the most victories this season (3). Martin's first win this year came at Phoenix, where he also earned the pole. The Arkansas native, however, has never won at New Hampshire, and this is his first race at the Magic Mile since September 2006. His best New Hampshire finish has been second on three occasions, but his most recent runner-up came in September 1998. Martin's fifth-place finish at Richmond should also put in him pretty good shape for Loudon.

While Martin's three victories have come on a variety of tracks, two of Busch's have been on short tracks -- Bristol and Richmond -- and he was a contender at Phoenix until problems dropped him to 17th. Always seen as a contender, the younger Busch has lacked consistency this year when it comes to top-10s. Entering New Hampshire, he hasn't recorded a top-10 since last month's race at Lowe's Motor Speedway. His best finish in the past four New Hampshire events came in September 2007, when he placed fourth. However, he was victorious in the track's first race in 2006.

Busch's older brother, Kurt Busch, is also having one of his best seasons and has always performed well at the New England track. He swept the New Hampshire events in 2004 and added another victory to his résumé last summer, though that was due to strategy in a rain-shortened event. The race's defending champion has led 298 laps at New Hampshire, eighth on the all-time lap leader list. This year, Busch has one victory -- Atlanta -- and has produced two top-10s in the past four races.

Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon also have enjoyed a tremendous amount of success at New Hampshire. In the past four New Hampshire races, Gordon has produced three top-5s, with his worst finish being 11th in last year's summer race. New Hampshire's top lap leader with 1,141 laps, Gordon has won three races at the track. He is second in the standings, 84 points behind Stewart, and he's also second to Stewart in the number of points earned on superspeedways this year. Fresh off a ninth at Sonoma, Gordon has five top-10s in the past seven races.

Seeking an unprecedented fourth consecutive title, Johnson has already collected two victories this year and is third in the standings. He hasn't finished outside the top 10 in New Hampshire's past four races and he was fourth at Phoenix in April. He also won at Phoenix and Richmond last year. A two-time New Hampshire winner, Johnson finished fourth last weekend on the season's first road course race and has produced three top-10s in the past four events.

How about Denny Hamlin? He won the New Hampshire summer event in 2007 and placed eighth in this race last year. In the past two fall races, he's recorded a ninth and a 15th. At Phoenix in April he produced a sixth, and he placed 14th in Richmond. In the fall of 2008, Hamlin took fifth at Phoenix and third at Richmond. Also keep an eye on Greg Biffle. He won last fall at New Hampshire and was fifth at Phoenix.

Note: A couple of dark horses to keep in mind this weekend are Martin Truex Jr. and Sam Hornish Jr. Truex's worst finish in the past four races at New Hampshire is seventh, and he was seventh at Phoenix earlier this year. Hornish was ninth at Phoenix and sixth at Richmond.

Big bucks (SCC value 21.0 and up)

If you have Tony Stewart (24.0), hold on to him because he'll take a shot at winning this weekend and looks good for Daytona and Chicagoland. He's expensive to buy right now, though, but if you bite the bullet you should get a nice payoff. Jeff Gordon (23.4) and Jimmie Johnson (23.2) should be strong this week too, but to save some cap space, Mark Martin (21.1) is top-5 material and so are Ryan Newman (22.0), Denny Hamlin (22.1) and Kurt Busch (22.2). You can also put Greg Biffle (21.9) in that group. He won at Loudon last fall and was fifth at Phoenix.

Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 21.0)

Once again no one leaps off the page this week in this group. Juan Pablo Montoya (20.9) was 10th at Richmond and should compete for a top-10. David Reutimann (20.4) also has top-10 potential, as does Marcos Ambrose (18.8). Jamie McMurray (18.4) ran well in both Phoenix and Richmond so he'll be attractive. Dale Jr. (18.3) has top-5s in two of the past four Loudon races and could surprise Sunday. Kasey Kahne (20.7) is coming off the Sonoma win but was 13th at Phoenix and, although he finished 11th last fall at New Hampshire, hasn't done much damage there in the past.

Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 18.0)

You'll get some help down here again this week, but who are the drivers to look at? At the top of this price range Martin Truex Jr. (17.9) has been rock solid at Loudon the past four races and I liked the way he looked at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick (17.4) has top-10s in two of the past four in Loudon and has an average finish over that span of 12th. I wasn't big on Joey Logano (17.1) last week, but he's back on my radar screen. He's run a lot of laps at New Hampshire. Not in a Cup car mind you, but that experience will help and so will running Saturday's Nationwide race. Sam Hornish Jr. (15.7) had top-10s at Phoenix and Richmond. Bobby Labonte (15.7) has also had a pretty good run the past four Loudon races.

Debit … Not credit

Up on top, I'm not real big on Carl Edwards (22.2) because I rate too many guys above and below him higher. Kyle Busch (21.6) could win the race, but boy, has he had a tough month and he burned me bad at Sonoma. Jeff Burton (21.2) has won four races at New Hampshire, but he's floundering and is more expensive than Mark Martin. In the "middle money," flat tracks have not been a strength of Brian Vickers (19.8), and Casey Mears (18.2) hasn't found any consistency yet. Among the "budget boys," David Ragan (15.9) has an extremely attractive price, but he hasn't done much at Loudon, or at Phoenix and Richmond this year.

Guru Garrow's gang

Going into Sunday's chats with the crew chiefs, I'm going to keep Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch, but I'll drop Montoya for Mark Martin, Robby Gordon for Sam Hornish Jr. and Marcos Ambrose for Martin Truex Jr. I wanted to go with Stewart, Martin, Truex, Hornish and Biffle, but came up 0.2 short … drat!

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.



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